Epidemiological inference for emerging viruses using segregating sites.

Epidemiological models are commonly fit to case and pathogen sequence data to estimate parameters and to infer unobserved disease dynamics. Here, we present an inference approach based on sequence data that is well suited for model fitting early on during the expansion of a viral lineage. Our approach relies on a trajectory of segregating sites to infer epidemiological parameters within a Sequential Monte Carlo framework. Using simulated data, we first show that our approach accurately recovers key epidemiological quantities under a single-introduction scenario. We then apply our approach to SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from France, estimating a basic reproduction number of approximately 2.3-2.7 under an epidemiological model that allows for multiple introductions. Our approach presented here indicates that inference approaches that rely on simple population genetic summary statistics can be informative of epidemiological parameters and can be used for reconstructing infectious disease dynamics during the early expansion of a viral lineage.

Unrecognized introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the US state of Georgia shaped the early epidemic.

In early 2020, as diagnostic and surveillance responses for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ramped up, attention focused primarily on returning international travelers. Here, we build on existing studies characterizing early patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread within the USA by analyzing detailed clinical, molecular, and viral genomic data from the state of Georgia through March 2020. We find evidence for multiple early introductions into Georgia, despite relatively sparse sampling. Most sampled sequences likely stemmed from a single or small number of introductions from Asia three weeks prior to the state's first detected infection. Our analysis of sequences from domestic travelers demonstrates widespread circulation of closely related viruses in multiple US states by the end of March 2020. Our findings indicate that the exclusive focus on identifying SARS-CoV-2 in returning international travelers early in the pandemic may have led to a failure to recognize locally circulating infections for several weeks and point toward a critical need for implementing rapid, broadly targeted surveillance efforts for future pandemics.

The changing epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

We have come a long way since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic-from hoarding toilet paper and wiping down groceries to sending our children back to school and vaccinating billions. Over this period, the global community of epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists has also come a long way in understanding the complex and changing dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. In this Review, we retrace our steps through the questions that this community faced as the pandemic unfolded. We focus on the key roles that mathematical modeling and quantitative analyses of empirical data have played in allowing us to address these questions and ultimately to better understand and control the pandemic.

Distinct patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA

Evidence-based public health approaches that minimize the introduction and spread of new SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters are urgently needed in the United States and other countries struggling with expanding epidemics. Here we analyze 247 full-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA, and find surprisingly distinct patterns of viral spread. Dane County had the 12th known introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, but this did not lead to descendant community spread. Instead, the Dane County outbreak was seeded by multiple later introductions, followed by limited community spread. In contrast, relatively few introductions in Milwaukee County led to extensive community spread. We present evidence for reduced viral spread in both counties, and limited viral transmission between counties, following the statewide Safer-at-Home public health order, which went into effect 25 March 2020. Our results suggest that early containment efforts suppressed the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within Wisconsin.

Comment on "Genomic epidemiology of superspreading events in Austria reveals mutational dynamics and transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2".

A reanalysis of SARS-CoV-2 deep sequencing data from donor-recipient pairs indicates that transmission bottlenecks are very narrow (one to three virions).

Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 genomes circulated at low levels over the first year of the pandemic.

Viral recombination can generate novel genotypes with unique phenotypic characteristics, including transmissibility and virulence. Although the capacity for recombination among betacoronaviruses is well documented, recombination between strains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has not been characterized in detail. Here, we present a lightweight approach for detecting genomes that are potentially recombinant. This approach relies on identifying the mutations that primarily determine SARS-CoV-2 clade structure and then screening genomes for ones that contain multiple mutational markers from distinct clades. Among the over 537,000 genomes queried that were deposited on GISAID.org prior to 16 February 2021, we detected 1,175 potential recombinant sequences. Using a highly conservative criteria to exclude sequences that may have originated through de novo mutation, we find that at least 30 per cent (n = 358) are likely of recombinant origin. An analysis of deep-sequencing data for these putative recombinants, where available, indicated that the majority are high quality. Additional phylogenetic analysis and the observed co-circulation of predicted parent clades in the geographic regions of exposure further support the feasibility of recombination in this subset of potential recombinants. An analysis of these genomes did not reveal evidence for recombination hotspots in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. While most of the putative recombinant sequences we detected were genetic singletons, a small number of genetically identical or highly similar recombinant sequences were identified in the same geographic region, indicative of locally circulating lineages. Recombinant genomes were also found to have originated from parental lineages with substitutions of concern, including D614G, N501Y, E484K, and L452R. Adjusting for an unequal probability of detecting recombinants derived from different parent clades and for geographic variation in clade abundance, we estimate that at most 0.2-2.5 per cent of circulating viruses in the USA and UK are recombinant. Our identification of a small number of putative recombinants within the first year of SARS-CoV-2 circulation underscores the need to sustain efforts to monitor the emergence of new genotypes generated through recombination.

The Effect of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Mitigation Strategies on Seasonal Respiratory Viruses: A Tale of 2 Large Metropolitan Centers in the United States.

To assess the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic on seasonal respiratory viruses, absolute case counts and viral reproductive rates from 2019-2020 were compared against previous seasons. Our findings suggest that the public health measures implemented to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission significantly reduced the transmission of other respiratory viruses.

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections harbor limited within-host diversity and transmit via tight transmission bottlenecks.

The emergence of divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages has raised concern that novel variants eliciting immune escape or the ability to displace circulating lineages could emerge within individual hosts. Though growing evidence suggests that novel variants arise during prolonged infections, most infections are acute. Understanding how efficiently variants emerge and transmit among acutely-infected hosts is therefore critical for predicting the pace of long-term SARS-CoV-2 evolution. To characterize how within-host diversity is generated and propagated, we combine extensive laboratory and bioinformatic controls with metrics of within- and between-host diversity to 133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from acutely-infected individuals. We find that within-host diversity is low and transmission bottlenecks are narrow, with very few viruses founding most infections. Within-host variants are rarely transmitted, even among individuals within the same household, and are rarely detected along phylogenetically linked infections in the broader community. These findings suggest that most variation generated within-host is lost during transmission.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in domestic cats imposes a narrow bottleneck.

The evolutionary mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 viruses adapt to mammalian hosts and, potentially, undergo antigenic evolution depend on the ways genetic variation is generated and selected within and between individual hosts. Using domestic cats as a model, we show that SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences remain largely unchanged over time within hosts, while dynamic sub-consensus diversity reveals processes of genetic drift and weak purifying selection. We further identify a notable variant at amino acid position 655 in Spike (H655Y), which was previously shown to confer escape from human monoclonal antibodies. This variant arises rapidly and persists at intermediate frequencies in index cats. It also becomes fixed following transmission in two of three pairs. These dynamics suggest this site may be under positive selection in this system and illustrate how a variant can quickly arise and become fixed in parallel across multiple transmission pairs. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in cats involved a narrow bottleneck, with new infections founded by fewer than ten viruses. In RNA virus evolution, stochastic processes like narrow transmission bottlenecks and genetic drift typically act to constrain the overall pace of adaptive evolution. Our data suggest that here, positive selection in index cats followed by a narrow transmission bottleneck may have instead accelerated the fixation of S H655Y, a potentially beneficial SARS-CoV-2 variant. Overall, our study suggests species- and context-specific adaptations are likely to continue to emerge. This underscores the importance of continued genomic surveillance for new SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as heightened scrutiny for signatures of SARS-CoV-2 positive selection in humans and mammalian model systems.

Revealing fine-scale spatiotemporal differences in SARS-CoV-2 introduction and spread.

Evidence-based public health approaches that minimize the introduction and spread of new SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters are urgently needed in the United States and other countries struggling with expanding epidemics. Here we analyze 247 full-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA, and find surprisingly distinct patterns of viral spread. Dane County had the 12th known introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, but this did not lead to descendant community spread. Instead, the Dane County outbreak was seeded by multiple later introductions, followed by limited community spread. In contrast, relatively few introductions in Milwaukee County led to extensive community spread. We present evidence for reduced viral spread in both counties following the statewide "Safer at Home" order, which went into effect 25 March 2020. Our results suggest patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission may vary substantially even in nearby communities. Understanding these local patterns will enable better targeting of public health interventions.

Full genome viral sequences inform patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread into and within Israel.

Full genome sequences are increasingly used to track the geographic spread and transmission dynamics of viral pathogens. Here, with a focus on Israel, we sequence 212 SARS-CoV-2 sequences and use them to perform a comprehensive analysis to trace the origins and spread of the virus. We find that travelers returning from the United States of America significantly contributed to viral spread in Israel, more than their proportion in incoming infected travelers. Using phylodynamic analysis, we estimate that the basic reproduction number of the virus was initially around 2.5, dropping by more than two-thirds following the implementation of social distancing measures. We further report high levels of transmission heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread, with between 2-10% of infected individuals resulting in 80% of secondary infections. Overall, our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of social distancing measures for reducing viral spread.

Distinct patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA.

Evidence-based public health approaches that minimize the introduction and spread of new SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters are urgently needed in the United States and other countries struggling with expanding epidemics. Here we analyze 247 full-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA, and find surprisingly distinct patterns of viral spread. Dane County had the 12th known introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, but this did not lead to descendant community spread. Instead, the Dane County outbreak was seeded by multiple later introductions, followed by limited community spread. In contrast, relatively few introductions in Milwaukee County led to extensive community spread. We present evidence for reduced viral spread in both counties, and limited viral transmission between counties, following the statewide Safer-at-Home public health order, which went into effect 25 March 2020. Our results suggest that early containment efforts suppressed the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within Wisconsin.